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When I discovered the horrendous mistake made by Jacobs consulting in their Liverpool survey in respect of the false information they published regarding Sefton council and the special dispensation which they didn't have for five yearly survey reviews, I decided to dig a little deeper into their methodology.
I had a very long and interesting conversion with Ian Millership one of the chief consultants at Jacobs Birmingham office. Ian is an extremely nice person and he was very helpful in answering the questions I put to him. If you have the Edinburgh Jacobs report you will notice in the section titled document control and under the heading prepared by and reviewed by, Ian is referred to in both sections.
We discussed among other things the tight profit margins surrounding these surveys and how corners have to be cut in order for Jacobs to make a profit. Naturally I was most interested in which corners are actually being cut? It was the precise cutting of corners that contributed to the wrong information being inserted in the Liverpool survey report. I deliberately said "contributed" because there are other relevant factors that should not be overlooked.
The glaring mistake made by Jacobs in the Liverpool report highlighted a distinct lack of legal knowledge of the Taxi trade by those who prepared, reviewed and finally approved the report. It is also surprising that Damien Edwards the Liverpool LO didn't pick up on the error.
When asked how this wrong information found its way into the report I was informed it was supplied by John Thompson the LO of Sefton. Knowing what I know of Mr Thompson I was not prepared to accept that inference at face value. I asked Ian Millership if he or any of his consultants had checked the information as being accurate? The answer was no.
I then asked him if he was aware of any court case outside of Scotland that had even considered the shelf life of a survey? He couldn't think of one.
I then asked him, "under the circumstances does it not seem strange that a court would give special dispensation to one individual authority" to be allowed to measure demand every five years? He said he took the information at face value and never questioned it.
Well I certainly wouldn't take any third party information at face value and I certainly wouldn't attempt to put it into a report as being factual. However, because of the corners being cut Jacobs are prepared to include any information that might make their reports look more substantive. It transpires that their survey reports include unsubstantiated information from third party organisations such as local and national Taxi organisations, neighbouring local authorities and many others. The problem is that all of this information is taken in good faith but at face value and used accordingly.
This is the consequence of low profit margins. Ian tells me that because of the low profit margins it is pointless Jacobs tendering for a contract if there are too many tender applications. This would seem a reasonable assessment.
So why have I posted the following text from the Jacobs Edinburgh report? Well most of what I call incidental information comes from third parties and that includes the council. For those who don't know, Edinburgh council informed me that all their Hackney carriage data has been computerised for over a year. That means If I keyed in plate number 123 I would instantly get all the details of plate number 123. If I did a database search on age I would get a chronological list of vehicles and their age. The point I am making is that the text below highlights certain data appertaining to the Edinburgh hackney carriage fleet. All of this information is held on computer and for Jacobs to obtain the information they would have had to request it from the council. So why did the council pay Jacobs for information that they already had available to them? It would be like me paying you to tell me that my name is John Davies?
Unmet demand surveys are not an exercise to inform the public of how good or bad the local Taxi service is? They are an exercise to help a council keep a preferred policy of restricting the number of Hackney carriages they license? The reason why all this information about driver and vehicle age is published is not because the council doesn't already know these details but because it makes the report look substantive. This is part of the third party information I mentioned earlier.
In the Text below you might wonder why Jacobs didn't use the full 100% statistics that was available to them, instead of using the smaller percentage? After all, the council supplied the statistics to them free of charge and then bought them back again. Perhaps the reason is once again down to the profit margins and the philosophy of time equals money? It is much easier and quicker to quote a selective sample than to give a full unequivocal breakdown.
Challenging a survey report in a court of law in most cases is quite difficult, simply because the presentation is nearly always impressive. Another reason is the independence of the survey. However survey reports are not insurmountable and anyone who knows anything about the Taxi trade and the law could mount a serious challenge to any survey. The Jacobs Edinburgh survey is full of wholes and those wishing to make capital from the data should study it very carefully as there are inconsistencies in the report which are significant.
The text below just highlights one aspect of third party information, which the council supplied to Jacobs only for the council to then buy that information back again.
2.1 Overview
Edinburgh has one of the largest fleets of taxis in the United Kingdom. Over the years, the number of taxis has increased, with the last increase from 1,211 vehicles to the current total of 1,260 taking place after the 2001 Survey.
The taxi fleet is supplemented by nearly 800 private hire cars, with an increase of over 400 vehicles having taken place in the last 4 years. Much of this increase is believed to be related to the airport, where taxi provision is restricted principally to vehicles directly contracted to the airport. At the present time, these vehicles are operated by Airport Onward Travel (part of Easyjet). All airport vehicles have to be licensed by the City of Edinburgh Licensing, although at present 150 are private hire cars and 70 are taxis.
The taxi fleet is principally owned by people who own just one vehicle, but who rent their vehicle to other drivers when not driving it themselves. Within the data available, we found no evidence of vehicle multiple-ownership.
There are some 3,400 taxi drivers, or around 2.7 per taxi, suggesting a very high level of ‘double shifting’ of taxis. There are 1,800 private hire drivers, giving a level of 2.3 drivers per private hire car. The three principal taxi companies in the City account for 80% of the fleet. This is a much higher degree of market concentration than other major cities. All three companies have very active telephone / radio networks which are widely advertised. The remaining 20% of the taxi vehicles are operated by individuals with no link to any radio network. Around 6% of the total taxi fleet operate for the current airport taxi service provider, although their contracts end in December 2005.
There are over 20 private hire companies operating in the City. One firm operates around three fifths of the private hire fleet. Nearly one fifth of the private hire car fleet operates for Airport Onward Travel.
2.2 Vehicle Types
A new licensing condition was recently added which requires all taxis to hold valid European Whole Vehicle Type Approval as an M I vehicle. In addition to the strict ‘London’ vehicle types, this limits the number of taxi styles to three models.
The ubiquitous Fx4 vehicle is the principal exclusion from the range. At the present time, just 10 recent Fx4 vehicles remain, with the last of these having been granted an exemption from this condition until February 2006. A sample of just over 40% of the fleet was taken from the Cab Office manual ledgers. From this sample, just 1% of vehicles are Fx4 style. A further 14% of the taxi fleet are Metrocabs, whilst Txl and Tx2 styles account for 40% and 45% of the fleet respectively. With both Metrocab and
Tx vehicles being of more modern appearance than the Fx, this gives the Edinburgh fleet a very up-to-date appearance. No vehicle type analysis was possible for the private hire car fleet, although it is known that a large proportion of the airport vehicles are estate style. Taxi Provision in the City of Edinburgh, Final Report, July 2005 Page 3 of 48
2.3 Age Profiles
A sample of just over 40% of the taxi fleet information was analysed to identify the age profile for the taxi fleet. The analysis allocated a specific age to each given registration year number or letter, taking account of the recent changes in registration year allocations. The average taxi age in Edinburgh is around 4 years, another result of the M I vehicle type condition. The most frequent plate in the sample equated to a ‘03’
plate, or vehicles around two years old.
The oldest plate identified was a “G”, around 16 years old, but there were very few vehicles earlier than “R” registration. Information was obtained to show the age profile of both taxi and private hire drivers. This is shown in Figure 1. Taxi drivers tend to be older than private hire car drivers. The average age for taxi drivers is 49, whilst private hire car drivers are on average 44 years old. 16% of all taxi drivers are 60 or over compared to 8% of private hire car drivers. 5% of all taxi drivers are over 65 years old (compared to 2% for private hire car drivers).
2.4 Distance Operated by Taxis
Data was provided for a random sample of 5% of the taxi fleet for the last year since their most recent test. The average distance travelled for this sample of vehicles was 227 kilometres per day (kpd), assuming each vehicle operated for a full 365 days. The lowest mileage was 50 kpd, whilst the largest was 390 kpd. Just 8 vehicles clocked over 300 kpd, whilst 11 travelled less than 160 kpd.
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