T. wrote:
Risk and Gamble are exactly the same thing, to take a risk is to gamble.
I thought I had already explained my opinion of calculated risk against a pure Gamble. If it didn’t register then I can’t be held responsible for that.
Quote:
How do Bookies, Casinos stay in business that is pure gamble by your definition and yet they profit year after year.
I wasn’t aware I had brought Casinos and Bookmakers into the argument but if you are referring that both those gaming industries are a pure Gamble then you obviously don’t know how those industries operate.
I do know how they “operate” and I would never class them as a gamble. So even though you yourself are of the opinion that a Calculated risk and a Gamble are the very same, please don’t infer that I share your opinion because I certainly do not.
If you want an education on how the Gaming industry works I would be more than happy to
Enlighten you. Your inference that they are a Gamble just highlights your lack of understanding of Bookmakers and Casinos.
Quote:
Insurance companies gamble that you will die before they pay out more in pension than you put in. You do not understand a thing about risk and probabillity.
Where do you get these crazy ideas from? lol
Insurance companies use risk assessment, this risk assessment takes many forms, too numerous to mention but at the end of the day it comes down to probabilities. The probabilities of my house being broken into or me having an accident or the plane I am travelling in crashing, or the likelihood of my house flooding or falling down. They take a calculated risk no matter what policy is taken out, whether it be life insurance, car insurance or whatever, the higher the risk factor equals a higher premium. It’s as simple as that.
In insurance everything is calculated, nothing is left to chance. That’s why the odds are in their favour. Insurance companies know that a certain percentage of losses will occur each year, they fix their percentages accordingly, its all a percentage game, same as Bookmaking and Casinos but I suppose all that is a little over your head.
Quote:
You have moved the goal posts again on the original question, you are now talking about borrowing £50k, that is a different proposition from using redundancy money to fund future income. How can you have a sensible debate if you keep changing the question to fit you answer.
The question is what business can you buy for £25K that is comparable to a taxi ?
Wasn’t it you who mentioned 50K did you not say the following statement?
Quote:
No-one has yet suggested an alternative business that offers the same immediate return, an established customer base etc, for less than £50k.
If it was meant to read something different then you should have said so at the time. If you make a statement like the one you made above, you can only expect us mere mortals to respond to what is actually written.
Quote:
20 years ago the banks would not lend against a plate, as you said "it has no value in law" you had to have some other collateral, a house or endowment policy etc. and no bank will lend you money to buy property unless you have an income to repay the loan. The whole bank manager scenario is a crock. Banks use a credit scoring system they don't care what the money is for, they lend to those that are the most likely to pay back, amounts over £10k are covered by bad debt insurance that the bank takes out and the borrower pays for. Insurance companies, the stock market, bond markets, commodities its all gambling. Banks cannot leave the money in the vaults doing nothing, inflation will eat away at it, the same with the £25k redundency money, where else could you buy an income of level you would get from working a taxi for that sort of money.
JD your thinking is almost as bad as "sussex" but for the opposite reason.
What I actually said was that over 20 years ago some banks would take into account the plate being an asset; indeed here in Manchester many plates were bought through financiers on the strength of the Value of the plate and not by having to re-mortgage their home. All that changed after 1986 when the 85 act became law.
It would appear that you have a fairytale notion that Banks lend out large amounts of money to any Tom Dick or Harry without security. You will be able to get a small unsecured loan of ten grand or so on the basis that you are credit worthy but when it comes down to a self employed cabbie borrowing 50k on an unsecured loan then I’m afraid you don’t know very much about Banks and their criteria for lending.
The first thing they will look at is your income and your job status. They have to be satisfied that you are earning enough money to repay the loan, they also have to be satisfied that the job you are doing satisfies their lending criteria. They will look into your bank account details to see how it has been run over a period of time and then they will let you know if your unsecured loan application has been successful. If you want to go to a private lender and bypass the bank you can do it over the phone, they will access your credit worthiness and tell you within five minutes if you’re successful. But don’t hold your breath.
Finally you mention redundancy money. Why you never mentioned this before I don’t know. But tell me; in what locality will this mythical person invest his 25 grand? Have you found a restricted area where cabs and plates are being sold for 25 grand? Do all those wishing to buy a Cab and plate for 25k have to pull up stumps and migrate there? Can you assure us that this locality will not deregulate this year next year or anytime in the near future. If it does can those that invested their 25k come to you for compensation because of your miscalculated reasoning? I am very much looking forward to your advice as to where prospective owners can buy a cab and plate for 25k.
In the present climate why would a person wish to speculate 25 grand on a plate when they can jockey for someone else or drive their own car on private hire? The earnings are more or less comparable.
Best wishes
JD
Reply.
I mentioned casino and bookies as en example of gambling to illistrate that all gambling is risk assment and probilities. These are not "crazey ideals", I am amazed at your display of stupidity, ask an insurance assesor, or an actuary. You said "in insurance nothing is left to chance" utter crap, there is no way anyone could calculate how many people will die, how many cars will crash, how many houses get broken into, that isw the most ridiculous thing on the whole forum. They use data to predict the likelyhood of events and the bigger the sample the better prediction, but it is never exact. That risk, the unknown element is the risk, the gamble. Apply that to buying a plate:-
Cost:Potential income:likelyhood of dereg before you get you money back, that is risk assesment.
The same process as insurance companies, bookies, casinos.
There are plenty of areas where you can buy a plate for under £25K, about 5 changed hand in this area this year. The speed LA move dereg is very unlikley in the next 12 months, by which time those that bought plates will have got their money back.
Again you have repeated back to me in your own words exactly what I said in my post about the banks, they will lend to those they think will pay it back, the amount will depend on the status of the applicant, they use a credit scoring system and have done for years.
Your Luddite blinkered thinking is the millstone around the neck of most taxi drivers, who think scrapping a living from a plate is running a businees.