Flawed
logic?
(15/1/2004)
Opinion:
Another uncompromising response re the OFT's
report - this time a driver offers a critique of
the T&G's submission to the Government's OFT
consultation.
In
its November Edition of Cab Trade News (CTN),
The Transport and General Workers’
Union (T&G), described the Office of
Fair Trading’s (OFT) report into taxis
and PHV services, as "superficial
and naive". Having just read the
T&G’s initial response to the OFT
report, those comments in CTN would be
better suited a lot nearer to home.
The
T&G’s response is packed full of
outdated dogma and flawed logic, it
shows the T&G to be the Liberal
Party of the cab trade, all things to
all people, but with no real chance of
ever actually doing anything that
matters.
From
the very start it glorifies itself
unjustly, apparently:
The
T&G is the largest representational
body within the taxi industry, both in
terms of number
and geographical spread.
Whereas
anyone in the cab trade knows that the
largest taxi union/association in the UK
is the Licensed Taxi Drivers Association
(LTDA), with a membership probably three
times that of the T&G. Not a good
start, I’m afraid.
Due
to the amount of space and time
available to me, I wont respond to
every word in the T&G’s response,
just the blindingly obviously inadequate
comments.
Before
responding in detail we would like to
state that we believe that the OFT has
missed
the opportunity to produce a radical
report which could positively influence
the
future of the industry. Indeed our
officer with responsibilities for our
taxi membership has described the OFT
findings which have been placed before
the DfT, as containing little more than
the tired old mantra of those who
understand little about taxi drivers,
their passengers, or public transport in
general.
The
T&G don’t want change, they bang
on about the ‘managed growth’
theory, but this is what we have had since 1985. Just
because you mention something time and
time again, doesn’t make it any more
sensible. Managed growth has failed, if
it was a success, then the OFT report
wouldn’t have happened. But what
radical ideas do the T&G want, for
years we hear and read about the
mythical ‘National Cab Act’, but
that’s it. The substance has never
followed.
Indeed
our officer with responsibilities for
our taxi membership has described the
OFT findings which have been placed
before the DfT, as containing little
more than the tired old mantra of those
who understand little about taxi
drivers, their passengers, or public
transport in general.
Spoken
like a true bus driver who has
presumably little real knowledge of the
cab trade.
The
OFT uses the phrase “artificially
limited” to describe the status of
areas that elect to measure demand and
match supply accordingly. We believe
this exposes their starting point and
demonstrates an unwillingness to give
serious consideration to a policy of
“planned and managed growth” which
the T&G has been commending for a
number of years.
I
don’t think we need to stop the world
in shock, when economists and competition
lawyers start with the view that
restricting any service is perhaps not a
good thing. Anyone who thinks different
is him or herself being naïve.
However,
in areas with restricted numbers such as
Liverpool and Manchester the LAs are
able to take advantage of a 'double
shift system' to ensure better coverage
during the night-time hours.
So
we finally have the answer to all our
woes, the T&G are going to tell
drivers that if they don’t work
nights, then the taxi game is not for
them. A union that wants to put added
burdens on those wishing to be employed
has somewhat missed the point of its
being. Perhaps we will then have a
waiting list for drivers, and they can
have a flawed ‘managed growth’
policy to assess drivers demand. But
what if an owner doesn’t want a
jockey, hmmmmmmmmm.
We
believe research should have been
carried out into how the lack of
quantity controls, affects the consumer,
but we think this should cover areas
outside of London, as London is not a
representative market.
But
the OFT did. They carried out a study
into how quantity controls affected the
taxi market. They found it had many
detrimental effects. Asking them to do
another study looking into the reverse,
will not affect those detrimental facts
and figures.
Manchester
City Council has developed its own
highly successful policy of controlled
expansion, which addresses the question
of unmet demand and latent demand, a
factor that is highlighted in the OFT
report (paragraph 4.52 page 36). Halcrow
Fox has carried out surveys in
Manchester every two years. These
surveys provide a wealth of information
and enlightenment to present day
problems, but, for their own reasons the
OFT did not look at Manchester in detail
in the report. It would be churlish to
suggest that this was because it did not
suit the OFT’s argument to do so.
So
do we now have part of T&G’s Cab
Act? Is this now T&G policy that
every council in the land surveys every
two years? No doubt the share price of
Halcrow will soar, 400 odd councils X £15-20,000
every other year. Not bad at all.
Especially when it’s been found
by the OFT study to be a highly
flawed process. I mean who cares about
the thousands and thousands of flaggers
that the present system misses?
In
4.26 the OFT have to acknowledge that a
straight comparison found that waiting
times in restricted areas were 30% lower
than in unrestricted areas. Further
analysis by them indicated that this was
“largely explained by the fact that
quantity controlled areas tended to be
urban, rather than by the existence of
quantity controls per se”. With little
explanation provided a “statistical
adjustment” is then made which
produces a figure more “supportive”
to the OFT thinking. But even this can
only produce the claim that
de-restricted areas have waiting times
between 2% and 7% lower, than restricted
areas. Possibly
acknowledging that this hardly makes
for the most convincing of arguments the
OFT
then opts to multiply this marginal time
saving by the number of trips undertaken
in the year to achieve something more
“tangible”.
T&G
Comment
This
is tabloid headline material. Our
analysis of the report would indicate
that the actual waiting time reduction
following de-restriction and an increase
of 50% in taxi numbers is merely 15
seconds in the area (Sheffield) that the
OFT chooses as a model.
So
hear we have the T&G criticizing the
OFT for averaging out to reach a
conclusion, in one breath, and in the
next, guess what? They are averaging out
to reach a conclusion. But whereas the
OFT’s conclusion proves their point,
that de-limitation works, the
T&G’s point doesn’t proves
their's that de-limitation fails, it
proves the reverse. If the waiting times
in Sheffield haven’t changed that
much, despite a large increase in
numbers, then de-limitation has worked,
and the doom-mongers saying that
de-limitation is the end of the world,
are wrong. Life still goes on, and in
Sheffield the trade is flourishing.
The
OFT can only draw comfort from the
following response, which deals with
aspiration rather than experience: a
slightly greater proportion of
respondents in restricted areas (50.4%)
feel there is potential for improvement
in hackney carriage services than in
de-restricted areas (47.9%).
That
is not the issue. Customers want us to
improve on the service we give. In
restricted areas they want more cabs
out, and in de-limited areas they also
want more cabs out. The latter however
may need to be looked at, but the former
is quite a straightforward situation to
address. You just de-limit, and hey
presto.
What
the OFT appear to be saying here is that
survey data does not reflect the actual
situation. If this is the case, what
reliance can be given to the survey
results?
Great
bit of twisting there. The OFT were
saying that the current survey system
takes no notice of latent (that which is
not obvious) demand, thus they quoted
from patent (rank observation) demand.
If it’s now the T&G view that all
existing un-met demand surveys are
flawed, then bang goes their members
defense against any refusal for a new HC
vehicle license i.e. immediate
de-limitation in Manchester, Glasgow,
Edinburgh, Brighton & Hove, and many
many more.
The
OFT also fails to take into account
double-shifting, that is very prevalent
in restricted areas, and which assists
with around the clock coverage. This
around the clock coverage often
deteriorates with de-restriction. The
experience in Birmingham for example
indicates that there is an oversupply of
taxis during daytime hours, now that the
market is derestricted, with no marked
improvement in supply at night-time.
Back
we are now yet again, to the new kid on
the block - ‘double shifting’. This
can be repeated as many times as they
like, because no one with any sense
believes it will ever happen. Which
perhaps is why only those who drive
buses mention it. As for Birmingham,
shock horror, they have more cabs
working during the day, than at night.
But how bad was the situation before
de-limitation? How many customers did
the previous failed system lose? No
improvement in supply is far better
than the detrimental effects of
restricting HC numbers, as the OFT
report clearly shows.
In
Liverpool, stories of "taxi
wars" following de-restriction are
legend, with local police having
to resort to extreme courses of action
to clear congested areas. Result
Re-limitation.
Another often
reported piece of nonsense. I wonder
(even though we all know the answer) how
many of those extra plates issued by
Liverpool Council, which supposedly
caused all those problems with
congestion etc, have been handed back to
the council. None, but all of a sudden
those scare stories are no more. Perhaps
all Liverpool’s roads have been
widened, or maybe the vehicles have been
shortened, or more likely the whole
story was a loads of old tosh.
Delimitation
of taxis in Edinburgh, in 1987,
increased numbers from 630 to 1030. By
1990 as many plates were being returned
as issued. The Council recognised the
serious financial hardship being
suffered by taxi drivers. A 12-hour day
shift resulted in 20 jobs compared to 35
in the mid 80's. To help ease hardship
the Council introduced tariff increases
of over 25% twice in a three-year
period. By 1994 vehicle standards
started to fall as cab owners cut back
on maintenance. By 1998, there was a
shortage of drivers for the total plates
issued.
A
few more often-repeated fables. If
drivers and vehicle standards fall,
it’s evidence of poor council
licensing, nothing else. If plates were
being handed back, then that’s exactly
what happens in the majority of councils
in the country. People come into the
trade, and people leave it. It’s
normal. Another often-repeated fable, is
the ‘too many car, not enough drivers'
situation. Well how inviting is the taxi
trade, when some are saying “please
come in and drive my car, but not your
own”, and “you can drive my car
anytime you wish, as long as it’s at
night”?
As
a result Edinburgh now works with the
Trade and has adopted a "managed
growth" policy backed up by
surveys.
Are these the
‘flawed’ un-met demand surveys that
the T&G have just called into doubt?
Swift
and sudden entry of large number of new
license holders - often from the private
hire trade.
Therefore
there is no change to the total licesned
fleet. Freedom of choice for
all licensed drivers, not just the
select few.
Large
numbers attempting to get on to ranks.
Well
get more rank space. Is there a council
area in the UK that has enough rank
space? It’s a poor excuse, repeated by
those with a weak case trying
desperately to defend the restrictions
on taxi numbers.
Neglect
of core (private hire) customer
previously served by P.H. drivers.
Absolute
rubbish, there is no evidence given by
the T&G to back up this claim.
Perhaps this is because there isn’t
any.
Cherrypicking
- where previously cabs have
"doubled up" or "double
shifted" covering all periods of
demand, the newly licensed plate-holders
work "core" day time hours.
Less rather than more during unsocial
hours.
So
new driver/owners are going to buy a
wheel chair accessible vehicle, insure
it, and finance both by sitting around
all day long. If the T&G think that
both HC and PH drivers are that thick
that they can’t add up, then please
let them say so.
In
the longer term, "independent"
drivers move onto company circuits or go
out of business.
Hang
on a bit here. Didn’t the T&G just
say that the phone trade would be
neglected? Now it appears it will be the
street work neglected because cars will
have to do phone work. Well at least the
policy lasted a couple of sentences.
Over-supply
leads to reduced earnings. This leads
to:
i)
Excessive working hours
ii)
Pressure to increase fares
A
touch of scare-mongering there I
believe. If you can’t earn a
reasonable wage in reasonable hours,
then you are in the wrong trade. So
please leave it to those of us who can
and do.
All
taxis sitting for longer periods on
ranks or driving around empty for longer
creating town centre congestion and
increased pollution.
Please
read the OFT report. In it you will find
that such claims are rubbish.
We
also know that Leicester, Bristol and
Newcastle have reversed de-limitation
decisions following similarly
unsuccessful experiments.
Again,
how many plates from these
‘unsuccessful experiments’ areas
have been handed back? I wonder if the
T&G objected to the de-limitation in
Bristol, which was brought about
following pressure from the Commission
for Racial Equality?
The
T&G believe that the argument that
‘unofficial premium value attached to
taxi vehicle licences when taxi vehicles
are sold’ is irrelevant. This is
because it is the welfare issues of
price and quality of service which are
the most relevant. The grey market
argument would only be relevant if
economic rent was being earned.
Absolute
rubbish. But please don’t take my word
for it take the courts view. The plate
value isn’t earnt; it has no goodwill
attached to it. Someone has to pay for
the ‘plate premium’, and the mug
punter fits the bill nicely.
We
believe that the variables used by
Halcrow were incorrect because:(a) Taxi
Licence Premium is the actual purchase
price of a taxi licence, and not the
estimated resale value of licence, as
used by Halcrow.
How
can it be incorrect? Are we now saying
that people pay tens of thousands of
pounds for something, and then sells it
for less? Hmmmmmmmm.
To give an
example: if a licence cost £12,000, the
discount value is 15%, so the net return
is 15% of £12,000 which is £1,800. The
average fare is £6.33 for a 4.7-mile
trip, and the taxi did 8,650 trips per
annum. Therefore the net return (£1,800)
divided by 8,650 trips equals 0.21.
Therefore the abolition of the licence
assuming economic rent was being earned
would result in a price reduction of
3.3% or 21p per trip.
Some people
really do live in cloud cuckoo land. If
the T&G are going to talk numbers,
then please lets not fantasize.
Apparently we all do 8,650 trips a year,
each averaging £6.33. I wonder how many
of us will be declaring earnings of £54,754.50p
on our next tax return?
However,
we accept that what is commonly referred
to as the sale of plates is in fact for
many people the sale of a business –
ie taxi vehicle with licence attached.
If there were to be legislative
proposals, which impact on the value of
such businesses, there must also be an
adequate compensation scheme.
Legislation should not result in the
ruination of genuine, committed owners
who have mortgaged their future in order
to enter the trade, earn a living and
provide for their retirement.
Some
may not have noticed, but the
legislation has been in force since
1985. Anyone who has bought a plate
since then has gambled on a future
re-sale value. Like most gamblers they
may well lose. However unlike most
gamblers, the T&G are expecting the
taxpayer to bail out those chancers in
the taxi trade.
This
is the OFT having two bites at the
cherry. If it does not get the
legislative change then
the LA should use the existing
legislation to move to de-restriction by
using vague “unmet demand”
arguments. Or use their existing powers
under the 1986 Act to delimit
irrespective of the situation in regard
to unmet demand.
Hear,
hear!!
Also
would customers be likely to phone
around other taxi firms to try and get a
lower price? If they could not get a
lower price elsewhere then the customer
would go back to the original firm, but
with no guarantee of getting the same
price if the firm realised that other
firms were charging more for the trip.
Don’t
the T&G realize that this is
commonplace already? Customers aren’t
stupid; they will get the best deal they
can.
We
reject the implication in the report
that that it may be appropriate to
dilute the existing vehicle licence
conditions. The T&G believes that
most of the metropolitan conditions of
fitness, particularly with regard to
wheelchair access, length, width, tight
turning circle and separation screen
continue to be appropriate for London
and most major cities.
I
see no mention about the jobs for the
boys in the Midlands. It appears the
T&G are content to allow the cab
drivers the length and breadth of the
country to carry on paying through the
nose for their tools of the trade. Quite
happy to promote the turning circle,
which has been deemed as being un-safe
by the recent review in London.
Brighton:
excellent relationship between Trade
representatives, Council and disability
users groups with regular surveys to
match supply and demand. Again this has
delivered a high quality accessible
fleet, responding to demand with a
gradual growth policy.
Yet another
piece of T&G mythology, but why
should they let the facts get in the
way? Brighton has surveyed taxi un-met
demand once, yes that’s right once, in
the last 12 years. Is that what the
T&G call regular? Is that what the
T&G mean by gradual growth? On the
subject of Brighton, do the national
T&G support their local members who
voted to keep the station closed to
their fellow HC colleagues? Does the
‘free and open’ policy only apply to
others, but not the T&G? Now
what’s that word beginning with H?
A
national pricing formula should be
introduced outside of London which would
be used by all local authorities and
unitary authorities to set the price of
taxi fares. The Cost Index employed
successfully in the capital for many
years could be used as a model. This
would reduce the risk of the consumer
being exploited but would still be
responsive to the local issues.
Yes it had to
be in there somewhere. Pages and pages
of out-dated dogma, but in a field of
weeds, out pops a rose of a policy. A
fare formula is the only sensible way
forward, for those who wish to earn a
reasonable wage, in reasonable hours.
The
T&G has consistently lobbied for new
legislation that would replace the
antiquated and piece meal laws in place
at the present time. The taxi trade and
its millions of customers require a new
National Cab Act to safely and sensibly
regulate a high quality, expanding but
sustainable sector of UK’s public
transport system. To focus on what is
essentially the most contentious and
controversial aspect within the
industry, with the de-regulatory
emphasis of the OFT recommendations,
while neglecting everything else, will
prove to be both retrograde and
confrontational.
The
T&G could be a great good for the
cab trade; it has contacts in high
places and massive legal and financial
back up. Which is at the disposal for
members, for only a few quid a week.
Alas, it’s Cab section has been
hi-jacked by the vested interest
brigades, who care little about the
licensed trade, but care plenty about
the plate premium. By supporting the
status quo the T&G are supporting a
system that has been proved to
discriminate against working women,
against ethnic drivers, and against those
in society who are unable to finance the
black market plate premium. It blindly
supports a small clique of drivers, and
ignores the vast majority of licensed
drivers, who just want to be treated as
equally as others. I have no doubt in my
mind whatsoever, that this behavior from
a trade union, albeit a small section,
must have the founding fathers of trade
unionism, the Tolpuddle Martyrs, turning
in their graves.
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