Edders wrote:
deep down the SNP want Brexit because then they can promise the people of Scotland that they will rejoin the EU as an independent nation
Correct, at least insofar as they'll say whatever they think it will take to achieve independence.
Won't bore you with the details, but there was a huge hoohah in the run up to the 2014 referendum about an iScotland and EU membership. Of course, the SNP claimed that iScotland would just breeze back into the EU, in fact there were some claims that we'd never have to actually leave the EU in the first place, and would automatically rejoin as an iScotland
But although the SNP didn't want an iScotland to leave the EU, on the other hand they were quite willing to entertain the possibility that we'd be out of the EU, for a few years at least.
And how easy or difficult it would be for an iScotland to rejoin the EU is obviously an ongoing topic up here - of course, the SNP claim it would be plain sailing, but I suspect it would take years.
Most obviously, EU membership would probably require a commitment to join the €, but in the short-term would probably require a new Scottish currency for membership. But they know a new Scottish currency isn't a good sell for independence, so they say they'll continue to use sterling. But I don't think you can join the EU while using another country's currency (particularly as that other country is not now an EU member
).
So very tricky for the SNP, and even some Europhiles in the party are effectively saying that EU membership would be off the agenda for years.
As is IndyRef2, effectively, for the above reasons, and a whole host of others. Just the other day one of Sturgeon's former advisers said that a referendum is effectively off the agenda until a Labour government in Westminster
As I've said, I don't really think Sturgeon would go for Inyref2 right now, even if Boris granted one.
But he won't, and Sturgeon just bluffs and blusters whatever she thinks suits her purpose. Take everything she says with a huge pinch of salt
Edders wrote:
The point I was making somewhat briefly is it doesn't matter all that matters is the SNP form the Scottish government as long as you have enough seats and backers that's all that matters
Correct, at least insofar as the SNP can generally rely on the six Green MSPs to vote with them, and the Greens are also hardcore independence supporters.
But the Scottish Parliament is about as useful as the EU parliament, so effectively a talking shop and gravy train.
Possibly the most important time for the Green vote is when the SNP rely on them to support the Budget, and the SNP normally throw them a few tree-hugging crumbs to secure their votes.
What'll happen to the Budget today after last night's revelations about finance secretary Derek Mackay is anyone's guess, though. But I'm stocking up on popcorn
And the Alex Salmond trial takes place next month